There are some early, small, tentative signs of a turnaround according to Infometrics’ latest monitoring of regional economies, but tough conditions remained for many areas and sectors at the end of 2024.

The tourism recovery has been uneven, with different country or region markets in focus. Over the 2024 calendar year, the US cemented itself as New Zealand’s second-largest inbound visitor market, with 11% of total tourist arrivals. The US market has fully recovered back to pre-pandemic levels over 2024. In comparison, China has slipped back to New Zealand’s third-largest market (from second-largest back in 2019), with only a 61% recovery over 2024.

Our recent update of the Infometrics Regional Economic Profile provides us with another year of detailed data across regional economies to examine. Over the March 2024 year, our analysis shows that rural economies had the strongest economic activity growth, with the primary sector a key part of this growth story.

Every year, some 60,000 young people leave school and make choices about their next steps that are important for the young people themselves, their whānau, and the New Zealand economy. Here we look at the latest data and research on school leaver outcomes...

The labour force participation rate has been consistently rising over the past 30 years in New Zealand, providing a welcome boost to the labour supply. But can participation keep rising?

Inflation spurring the “cost-of-living crisis” during 2022 and 2023. The pressure on household budgets from higher prices was exacerbated by the Reserve Bank’s necessary response of much higher interest rates, which dragged spending lower throughout 2023 and much of 2024.

The pace of supplier cost increases to Foodstuffs supermarkets slowed slightly in January, with the Infometrics-Foodstuffs New Zealand Grocery Supplier Cost Index (GSCI) showing an average 2.1% increase in what suppliers charged in January 2025, compared to a year earlier.

In late 2023, we established a split of our non-residential building forecasts into consents for new buildings and consents for alterations and additions (A&A). At the time, we noted the long-term trend in non-residential construction towards new building, and predicted that this trend would continue...

Diesel prices drifted downwards throughout much of 2024, by September reaching their lowest level since Russia invaded Ukraine in early 2022. But the relief for transport operators has been short-lived, with a renewed lift of almost 30c/L since early October.

There’s reason for optimism about the New Zealand economy and business conditions over the next 24 months, according to Infometrics’ latest forecasts, as the post-inflation recession gets put behind us and interest rates return to more normal levels. Although economic growth is not forecast to get above 2.5%pa during 2025 and 2026, the recovery will be underpinned by increased household spending, a more stable housing market, and strength in export commodity prices.